Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
